Changes in cause-specific mortality over time (part 1): a longitudinal analysis using the 2001 and 2011 NIMS cohorts to explore changes in cause-specific mortality rates over time (between 2001-2006) and (2011-2016).

This project is the first part of an analysis which will examine changes in cause-specific mortality between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. We propose using (1) the NIMS databases to compare directly standardised cause-specific mortality rates between 2001-2006 and 2011-2016 (or to the latest mortality download); then, in a related study (to follow), (2) the NILS databases to analyse this mortality in relation to between-census transitions in contextual factors.

The basis of the project is to examine a set of sentinel mortality outcomes – including the components of mortality related to cardiovascular disease, suicide, dementia, respiratory disease, selected cancers and preventable mortality – to examine their rates of occurrence in NI, and especially in relation to the current related secular trends associated with the outcomes.   The study can be seen as an extension of work carried by O’Reilly & Rosato (2008 and 2015), Wright et al (2017) and others using the NILS/NIMS databases over the last ten years which has examined these issues extensively, though mostly in relation to one census time-point only. As such, it fits into mainstream social epidemiology, with its overriding research interest in social determinants and material deficit on population-level health outcomes (Cockerman et al, 2017; Erikson & Torssander, 2008).

The findings will provide a monitoring function for policy makers and other stakeholders in relation to sentinel health outcomes over time, for example all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease mortality (IHD, CVD etc), suicide, selected cancers (breast, prostate, lung) as well as more generalised groupings such as preventable mortality.