How conflict and peace affect fertility behaviour and infant health: A case study of the Troubles in Northern Ireland

Amidst the backdrop of the Troubles and the transformative Good Friday Agreement, this research embarks on a comprehensive exploration of the intricate relationship between historical conflict, peace accords, fertility behavior, and infant health outcomes in Northern Ireland. It is documented that periods of conflict can often lead to baby booms in post-war contexts (Guerra-Cújar et al., 2020). This phenomenon can be attributed to various aspects inherent to prolonged violent conflicts which can affect households’ long-term decisions such as fertility, due to uncertainty about the future and potential higher risk of mortality. Further, conflict significantly impacts healthcare systems, which may contribute to worse maternal and child health outcomes.

The end of the thirty-year-long conflict resulting in the Good Friday Agreement provides a compelling context for an in-depth exploration of whether the peace agreement and the end of frequent violence triggered an increase in fertility rates, as well as looking at the mechanisms behind such a change.

This study has two main research aims: firstly, the investigation of how the Good Friday Agreement, a transformative juncture in Northern Ireland’s history, has reverberated through fertility behaviors, consequently shedding light on the enduring echoes of conflict. Examining fertility within the peace agreement context can enhance our understanding of peacebuilding, demographic trends, and economic outcomes (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004). This knowledge can guide policymakers in creating supportive policies for families, fostering economic growth, and sustaining peace. The second research aim is to explore fetal loss outcomes including the sex ratio, infant mortality, and stillbirths through the potential impact of maternal stress during pregnancy (Valente, 2011; Sanders & Stoecker, 2014; Mansour & Reese, 2012; Quintana-Domeneque & Ródenas-Serrano, 2017). Analyzing these facets through an economic lens not only reveals their societal implications but also offers pathways for mitigating their far-reaching effects (Almond & Currie, 2011).

In conclusion, this research proposal seeks to unravel the complex interplay between peace agreements and fertility decisions as well as infant health outcomes, thereby contributing to public policy, economic development, and peacebuilding efforts in Northern Ireland. Various regression models will be utilized to answer these questions, looking at children born between the period of 1974 to 2006. The insights gained from this study have the potential to illuminate some of the enduring implications of conflict related to fertility and infant health, along with the outcomes that follow the cessation of violence. In particular, the well-documented literature illustrates a pattern of declining fertility during conflicts, followed by a resurgence, mirroring what often transpires in the aftermath of natural disasters (Guerra-Cújar et al., 2020).