Inter-Censal Migration Flows.

Annual migration flows between local authorities are published as part of estimating the mid-year population. These flows are actually based on movements on the health card registration systems measured by changes of addresses but only the marginal flows are published. The link to the NILS data opens the possibility of estimating the annual cross-flows between areas and by characteristics not measured on health card registration data (such as self-reported health status in the previous Census) using Bayesian models that calibrate different sources of data to be consistent. This has potential implications for local health planning if specific areas are experiencing relatively high inflows of those with poorer health.


Brown, J and McDonald, M (2011) ‘Estimating migration flows in Northern Ireland by health characteristics measured in the Census: using the NI Longitudinal Study.’ – presented at the British Society of Population Studies Annual Conference, University of Leeds, 7 September 2011.

Research Team: James Brown, John MacDonald and Alfonso Miranda
Database: NILS
Project Status: Complete
Organisation(s): Institute of Education, Centre for Longitudinal Studies; Institute of Education, Dept of Quantitative Social Science and University of Southampton